Monday, June 29, 2009

Putin’s Mentor Elected to Gazprom’s BOD

by Roman Kupchinsky

The June 26, 2009 shareholders meeting of OAO Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas monopoly, did not produce many surprises. Management received large bonuses while shareholders complained that they were being victimized by the company as their dividends shrank.

One of the most interesting developments was the election of Valery Musin to the company’s board of directors as an independent director. Musin, head of the Civil Procedure Department at St Petersburg University Law Faculty, is the former research supervisor of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and teacher of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Musin received the second most votes from shareholders at the meeting after Alexei Miller, the company CEO.

Musin’s relationship with Putin solidified during their days together in the St. Petersburg Mayor’s office where Putin headed the department of foreign economic relations. Musin worked in this department as a legal expert. Other employees in the section were Alexei Miller, the present CEO of Gazprom, Valery Golubev, a former KGB officer who is now a deputy CEO of Gazprom, and Igor Sechin, the Deputy Prime Minister responsible for energy policy in Putin’s cabinet who is also chairman of the board of directors of the state-owned oil company Rosneft.

At the time of this posting, the Gazprom website had not yet posted a full biography of Musin indicating only that he was head of the Civil Procedure Department.

While Musin might not have much clout on the Gazprom board, his election appears to be the result of Putin’s and Medvedev’s efforts on his behalf. According to an article in Kommersant Daily, "The Prime Minister cut the list (of candidates for the board) apart," our source in the Government said. However, another well-informed source claims that the amendments were made by President Dmitry Medvedev.”

Whatever role Musin is expected to play as an independent director, there is no doubt that his election to the board will only strengthen Putin’s hold over Gazprom. As a legal expert Musin will no doubt provide invaluable advice to Russia’s champion company, its managers and behind-the-scenes power brokers.

Russia Threatens to Cut Gas to Belarus

by Roman Kupchinsky

Russia’s Gazprom threatened to cut off gas deliveries to Belarus unless a debt of $244 million is repaid in July. The warning was issued by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller who stated that “we have sent a letter demanding that the debt be paid, if not we shall act according to the terms of the contract. We can turn to the courts or we can reduce the volume of gas supplied.”

Gazprom officials told Kommersant Daily that Belarus owed $243 million for gas consumed from January-April and $10 million for late payment fines. Furthermore, Gazprom claims that Belarus received a total of $875 million for its sale of 12.5 percent of Beltransgaz, the owner of the Belarus gas pipeline, and for gas transit fees.

Belarus vice-premier Vladimir Semashko responded by saying that his country will only begin repaying the debt in July and will be able to pay the full amount by November. Semashko also noted that Belarus disputes the penalty charges of $10 million and will not pay them.

A large part of the misunderstanding stems from what was said and promised during a meeting between Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on April 10, 2009. Officials in Minsk claim that during the meeting, Medvedev promised that Belarus would be charged $150 per 1,000 cubic meters – that figure being the average yearly price for gas in 2009. This verbal agreement was then sent to Gazprom in the form of an addendum to the existing gas contract, however Gazprom never responded to the letter.

When asked about the conversation between the two presidents, Miller replied that there was in fact such a conversation but the agreed upon terms were not included in the addendum to the contract.

Gazprom has stated that it plans to charge Belarus “European prices” for gas beginning in 2011. What that might be is difficult to say and will depend upon the price of oil.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Eurasian Energy Briefs

by Roman Kupchinsky

China continued to forge closer energy ties with Turkmenistan. On June 25, 2009 the China Development Bank signed an agreement with Turkmengaz, the state-owned gas company, promising $4 billion in preferential loans for energy projects. Turkmengaz agreed to boost future gas deliveries to China by 33 percent, from 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 40 bcm annually. China National Petroleum is building the 7,000 kilometer (4,300 mile) Central Asia Gas gas pipeline from the Bagtyarlyk region of Turkmenistan that is scheduled to open this year.


Russian energy giant Gazprom
began its annual stockholders meeting today in Moscow. On the agenda was the election of a new board of directors. The board is headed by first Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov and contains four Gazprom managers, including CEO Alexei Miller. Valery Musin , the former teacher of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev at St. Petersburg State University was elected to the board. Professor Musin is one of Russia's leading international business law experts. He served as chief legal expert to the St. Petersburg Mayor's Office Foreign Affairs Department headed at the time by Putin. His election strengthens Putin's grip on Gazprom.

Ukraine’s Naftohaz refuted charges made by Gazprom’s Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev on June 24, 2009 that storing Russian gas in Ukrainian underground facilities is risky and that Ukraine “stole” 8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. After the press conference, Gazprom’s press center explained that Medvedev was referring to a dispute which took place in 2004-2005. In response to these charges, the Naftohaz press center stated that it is impossible for Ukraine to steal any Russian gas from its storage facilities because for the past 4 years no Russian gas has ever been stored in them. Furthermore, Naftohaz explained that according to the current contract there is no linkage between storage and the transit of Russian gas to Europe. Naftohaz did indeed offer to store Russian gas this year, but Gazprom refused the offer.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Gazprom’s Investment Program to Decrease by 30 Percent

by Roman Kupchinsky

Faced with lowered demand for gas in Europe and Ukraine along with collapsing profits, Russian energy giant Gazprom will decrease its 2009 investment program by 30 percent according to the newspaper Vedomosti.

In dollar terms this means that investments will decline from the 920.44 billion rubles,($29.35 billion) approved by the company’s board of directors in December 2008, to approximately 640-740 billion ($20.4 billion). The largest cut of 137 billion rubles ($4.37 billion) will come from the postponement of bringing on line the giant Bovanenkovo field in the Yamal Peninsula . Which projects will be postponed or cut to make up the rest of the decrease Gazprom officials refused to say.

This is not the first time Gazprom has adjusted its controversial investment program over the years. In 2004 the investment budget for 2006 was 286.5 billion rubles ($11 billion). As the gas monopoly went on an acquisition spree in 2007 by buying the Moscow power generating company Mosenergo, 19 percent of the independent gas company Novatek and the Sakhalin-II LNG project, the investment budget jumped to 779.4 billion rubles ($30 billion).

But the greatest criticism hurled at Gazprom has been its lack of developing new gas fields while traditional fields are being depleted and for placing too much emphasis on buying once cheap Central Asian gas to cover production cuts.

The state-owned monopoly tried to rebut criticism when Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev told a press conference in Moscow on June 24, 2009 that the reason Gazprom's market share in Europe and Turkey plunged to 16 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared with 30 percent last summer was because European customers were temporarily buying less gas because they built up large reserves last summer in anticipation of higher prices at the start of this year. However, Medvedev failed to mention that European customers preferred buying cheaper LNG in spot trading from Gazprom's competitors.

According to the Moscow Times Medvedev stated that Gazprom is planning to export 142.1 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe and Turkey this year, a 10.5 percent decrease from last year's 158.8 bcm. The gas will come from its own production, independent producers and Central Asian imports.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Russian Spies and European Energy Security

by Roman Kupchinsky

The head of Germany’s counterintelligence organization, the BfV, Burkhard Even told the newspaper Die Welt am Sonntag on June 21, 2009 that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, has been actively conducting espionage operations against the German energy sector. "The Russian intelligence services, keeping up with their government's changing information needs, have intensified efforts in recent years to investigate German firms illegally," Even said.

The SVR effort is targeting the acquisition of information on alternative and renewable energy and efforts to increase efficiency. European energy interests, diversification plans and Germany's economic situation are also on the SVR’s shopping list.

The chief of the BfV considers that the Russian secret services have also supported attempts by Russian enterprises to obtain a foothold in the German power sector. Since 1990, natural gas’ share of the German electricity market has more than doubled, from 7 percent to 16 percent and much of this gas is from Russia.

Two years ago, German Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble presented his ministries 2007 security report in which it states that Russia and China were stepping up espionage efforts and Internet attacks on German companies.

"Intelligence and security services are under orders to actively support Russian industry," said the report, adding that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had renewed that as a goal when he was president.

"The greed of foreign intelligence services ... is directed not only at big companies but also at a number of innovative small and mid-sized firms," the report claimed.

The BfV assertions that the Russian SVR, under the command of former prime minister Mikhail Fradkov is engaged in gathering confidential information about energy diversification plans in Europe should disturb not only the German counterintelligence community, but the EU Commission as well as policy makers in European capitals.

Particularly vulnerable to Russian spying are the new EU member states such as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania.

The Polish newspaper Fakt reported on October 19, 2004 that:
"They (Russian intelligence services) are implementing the strategy adopted after the collapse of the Soviet Union aimed at making Poland and other countries dependent on Russian energy resources. Their activity has intensified since Putin became Russian president," says Marek Biernacki. The former Interior Minister points out to another threat: "Polish companies employ former secret service officers as experts. There are no guarantees that these experts are loyal to Poland."

“Gas, oil, and -- most recently -- electric energy are the number one target of Russian agents. Russia is seeking to make Poland dependent on its supplies. This would enable it to blackmail any Polish government. The meeting between Vladimir Alganov (accused by Polish authorities of spying for Russia) and [the wealthiest Polish businessman] Jan Kulczyk clearly shows this: the two men discussed not only oil, but also mysterious electricity deals. The Russians earlier did everything they could to control a fiber optic cable that was to connect Russia with the West via Poland.”

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Gazprom in Negotiations to Change Turkmen Gas Contract

by Roman Kupchinsky

Russia’s Gazprom and Turkmenistan’s state-owned gas company, Turkmengaz, were reported to have begun negotiations today on changing the terms of the gas purchase contract signed last December. Russia is proposing that the contract be a “take or pay” contract, linked to the price of oil and not the annual fixed price as was agreed upon in December.

Gas sales from Turkmenistan to Russia were suspended in April when a conflict broke out between the two countries over a pipeline blast caused by a change of pressure in the pipe. Turkmenistan blamed Gazprom Export for not notifying Turkmen authorities that it had stopped receiving gas. The Russian side rejected the charges and gas stopped flowing to Russia.

The conflict grew when the Turkmen side decided not to automatically award Gazprom a contract for the construction of the East-West pipeline and clinched a deal with China to develop the on-shore part of the giant Yolotan gas field.

At the heart of the dispute is the pricing mechanism agreed upon in the December 31, 2008 contract. Gazprom, according to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, agreed to pay Turkmenistan a fixed rate of $340 (which includes transit fees) for 1,000 cubic meters throughout 2009.

However, a few days later Putin and Gazprom insisted that Ukraine pay Gazprom on the basis of a take or pay contract linked to the price of oil. Why Turkmenistan was given a fixed price is difficult to say. Furthermore the terms of the December 2008 contract with Turkmenistan were never made public.

In the first quarter of 2009 Gazprom paid Ashgabat $300 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. If a take or pay pricing method is agreed upon, Gazprom will pay Turkmengaz $220 in the third quarter and $160 in the fourth quarter of 2009.

A number of factors might have played a role in bringing Gazprom and Turkmenistan back to the negotiating table. When Turkmen gas ceased going to Russia in April, Turkmenistan, which has no other significant customers for its gas or export routes, was forced to cap some bore holes or flare off the gas, losing millions of dollars.

Russia, on the other hand, is faced with lower demand in Europe and Ukraine; however, the different opaque gas middlemen schemes Gazprom Export has created in Europe, like Gazprom Germania, rely on Central Asian gas supplies to sell to their customers. These schemes cannot continue siphoning off Russian gas without that gas being replaced by gas from Central Asia.

The Gazprom Germania website states: “The main focus of our business activities is on marketing natural gas of Russian and Central Asian origin in Western and Central Europe.”

The other question which needs to be resolved during the new negotiations is the volume of gas that Russia will buy from Turkmenistan in 2009. The earlier number of some 40 billion cubic meters, is now unrealistic and Gazprom will most likely insist on a far lower amount.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Russia, the Archangel Michael and the Iranian Election

by Roman Kupchinsky

While many Western leaders have condemned the Iranian regime for rigging the vote in the June 2009 presidential elections in favor of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and for using brutal force to suppress pro-democracy protesters, Russia and China, as could have been predicted, congratulated the Iranian leader on his “victory” and lambasted the United States and its allies for having doubts about the final results of the vote.

“The issue of elections in Iran is an internal affair of the Iranian people,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters in Yekaterinburg where Russia hosted a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which was attended by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad…“We welcome the holding of elections in Iran, and we welcome the newly re-elected president of Iran on Russian soil… it is highly significant that the first foreign visit after Ahmadinejad’s re-election is to Russia." It was indeed significant given that the two countries share so many things in common.

This message was further elaborated upon by Alexander Dugin, the head of the Russian right-wing International EurAsian Movement, among whose members are many influential Russian businessman. Dugin stated. "The SCO is evolving into a kind of organization for countries that feel themselves excluded from the global system, who feel victimized by the US-dominated unipolar order…"Now this unipolar world is being shaken to its foundations by economic crisis and imperial retreat, and it's time to define a new project of a multi-polar world."

The International EurAsia Movment board is listed on the organizations website and includes numerous members of the Russian defense and security services.

In a programmatic speech by Dugin at the 2004 conference of the organization, he presented a broad outline of the group’s goals in a rambling manifesto.
“Almost all religions and traditions claim – globalization, “new world order” , “unipolar world”, “world cabinet” – are symbols of Lucifer , strategic constructions of “God enemies” – Archangel Michael`s direct enemies. Christians identify this “new world order” as “antichrist”, muslims as “dadjallah”, judes – “great melting” (“erev rav”), hinduists – as forces of Kali Juga, Buddhists – Mara, demon of illusion. On the other side of all differences between doctrines, rituals and dogmata exists special tradition – tradition of Archangel Michael, “michaelic” veiled light. It is affiliation of human to “hierohistory”, right (and obligation) to be a soldier of one of the two opposing armies.”

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao both met Ahmadinejad, although the meeting with Medvedev was brief because Ahmadinejad had arrived in Yekaterinburg a day late because of the crisis in Tehran. Ahmadinejad and Medvedev joked and smiled for television cameras, but as Kremlin spokeswoman Natalya Timakova said “their meeting had been very short: "They did not even sit down."

A brief report from China's official Xinhua news agency said Hu and Ahmadinejad "exchanged views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern" on the sidelines of the summit.

By embracing, however low-key, the official Iranian election results, the Russian and the Chinese leaderships have gambled that the current regime will be able to suppress the opposition and remain in power. If they are proven wrong they are likely to be seen by the Iranian opposition as allies of the hated regime and the Archangel Michael and his contemporary supporters might be in for a shock.