By Paul Goble
None of the five republics in Central Asia were ever
ethnically homogeneous. Joseph Stalin, in fact, purposefully drew their borders
so that there would always be a local minority that he could use against the
ethnic majority, either as his agents in place or as a target on which to shift
the anger of the majority away from Moscow. Since 1991, however, all five
republics have become far more ethnically homogeneous. This has largely been the
result of people fleeing countries where they had, often, lived for many years
due to violence or the fear of violence and moving to neighboring states where they
are members of the titular nationality.
That process had slowed in the early 2000s, but now there is
evidence that it is accelerating again, not because of violence or fear thereof,
but rather because of increasing ethnic hostility by ethnic majorities directed
against minority groups as well as discrimination against the latter in the
workplace and more generally. And what is worrisome is
that xenophobic attitudes among the titular majority nationalities appear to be
far stronger among young people than among their parents, who grew up in Soviet
times when “internationalism” was highly valued.
The attitudes of the majorities and the experiences of the fleeing
minorities will make it far more difficult for the governments in the region to
deal with one another, and far more likely that at least some politicians will
exploit these ethnic hostilities to the point that border conflicts in this already
tense and unstable region will become ever more likely.
Recently
illustrative of this wider trend has been the flight of ethnic Kyrgyz from the
Dzhirgatal district of Tajikistan. Many
Kyrgyz fled the region in the 1990s because of civil war. But the current
exodus, which has reduced this minority’s share of the region’s population by
an additional 50 percent, is reported by those Kyrgyz still living in the
region to be due to “discrimination on an ethnic and racial basis.” And they add that younger ethnic Tajiks are far more
likely to display anti-Kyrgyz attitudes than the older generation, which was
born and grew up in Soviet times (Centrasia.ru,
November 13).
Local officials play down the problem and say that the departure
of anyone from their region is entirely voluntary, the result of personal
social and economic problems of kinds found everywhere. But local
Kyrgyz residents dispute this, pointing to frequent discrimination against them.
At least a third of them say that they hope to leave once they save up enough money
to do so and find a place in Kyrgyzstan to move to.
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