Georgia Thwarts Another Russian-Sponsored Coup Attempt

By David Iberi

On May 26, 2011, the day Georgia celebrates its Independence Day, the Ministry of Internal Affairs made public a phone conversation, or a recording on some other electronic device, between Nino Burjanadze and her son, Anzor Bitsadze, that took place some time during the May 21 – 25 violent anti-Western and antigovernment protests she organized in downtown Tbilisi.

Burjanadze, former chairwoman of Parliament who turned into the single most important conduit of Russian schemes against Georgia’s pro-Western course, discusses with her son some gruesome details of her plan aimed at overthrowing the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili. The overthrow would materialize at the expense of hundreds of innocent civilian lives “in a civil war” and, even more importantly, with the help of the Russians. “It is worth the death of 100 or even 500 people,” Anzor suggests to his mother, to which Burjanadze replies, “Yes, you are right.” Then then discuss how many Georgians are pro-Western and how many are pro-Russian, and Burjanadze says that she has “direct” support of 15 percent of Georgians. The figure is of course greatly exaggerated given the data of every single poll suggesting that Burjanadze has never had more than 1 – 2 percent.

The last part of the mother-son conversation is about how to use the “Egypt scenario” after a coup d’état has already been carried out in Georgia, such as setting up a transitory government, declaring a state of emergency and installing a curfew. As for the Georgian security forces, Anzor says to his mother, “We will withstand the first strike and then let them deal with the GRU special task forces.” The GRU, of course, is the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

[ See Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh35kUiu0Ho ]

In her latest desperate bid to force President Saakashvili out of office, Burjanadze organized aggressive protest rallies in the central parts of Tbilisi that attracted no more than a few thousand people at most, mainly men in their late fifties. Georgian social networks suggest that many of those who showed up at the Burjanadze demonstrations were former Soviet police and security officers and Communist Party apparatchiks who lost their jobs, influence and prestige after the liberal Rose Revolution ended Eduard Shevardnadze’s regime. Burjanadze and her supporters blocked several important streets in Tbilisi between May 21 and 25—even though the number of protesters was so small that they could well stand on sidewalks without interfering with the traffic. Police did not interfere until the protesters declared that their goal was to sabotage the Independence Day celebrations on Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue scheduled for May 26.

A police officer and a civilian were killed, and another police officer was critically injured, when two cars from Burjanadze's escort speeding away from the scene crashed with the crowd after police started breaking up the violent demonstration, the Ministry of Internal Affairs said in a statement.

Burjanadze has visited Moscow several times over the past few years and repeatedly met with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Every time she returned from Moscow, her ambitions seemed to have increased and her plans only became more aggressive. Burjanadze never publicly called Russia’s illegal presence on Georgian soil occupation, nor has she ever qualified the events of August 2008 as Russia’s invasion of Georgia. Moscow, for its part, has never hidden its support and sympathy for Burjanadze nor other representatives of a small group of Georgia’s pro-Russian forces.

The latest events, including, the scandalous record of Burjanadze’s conversation with her son, show both the ability of Georgia’s pro-Western government to defend the nation’s sovereignty and the incessant attempts by the Kremlin to destabilize Georgia and bring it back under its suzerainty. But it is also true that until Georgia becomes a formal ally of the West, its long-term stability and security will remain under a big question mark. Greece and Turkey of the 1940s could serve as a good reminder.

Kyrgyz MPs Exorcise Demons by Slaughtering Sheep

By Erica Marat

Tired of continuous showdowns that threaten to disintegrate the ruling coalition, Kyrgyz MPs decided to sacrifice seven sheep in front of the parliament building. According to local traditions, offering the blood of a slaughtered sheep expels devils that a human being is not able to oust just by virtue of his or her own effort.

Although blood offering is a common feature of most Kyrgyz politicians’ campaigns in rural areas, this is the first time the ritual has been performed in central Bishkek. Each of the 120 MPs contributed 700 soms (roughly $18) toward the ritual. Slaughtered meat was served to the people working in the parliament and shared with the elderly and disabled.

In an attempt to boost their own popularity, Kyrgyz MPs have resorted to symbolic politics, trying to justify their own dysfunction. In a recent brawl, ruling coalition members engaged in a fistfight, smashing each other’s faces and further threatening the coalition’s collapse.

Other attempts to boost individual popularity include the compilation of an extended list (over 1,160) of heroes of the April 7, 2010 regime change. The list is long because every parliamentary faction suggested its own heroes. The list embraces about 10 percent of the roughly 10,000 demonstrators on that day.

Furthermore, MPs also voted to impose restrictions on the use of state symbolism. For instance, anyone wearing a hat while performing a national hymn will be charged for misconduct. Also, the state emblem and flag cannot be used on personal business cards.

The parliament’s use of rituals exposes its attempt to deal with the increased transparency of parliamentary work. Most parliamentary sessions are broadcast live, while local media outlets have a good overview of the ruling coalition’s work.

The politics of symbolism might indeed increase the parliament’s short-term popularity among some segments of society. To most international media, however, the Kyrgyz MPs’ lamb slaughter was a source of comical headlines.

U.S. Image in Central Asia

By Erica Marat

Nearly half of the Central Asian population shares a favorable view of U.S. global leadership, the latest Gallup survey shows.

Ironically, approval rating in Kyrgyzstan, where the United States has a transit base servicing the war in Afghanistan, is the lowest within Central Asia. Only 30 percent of population sees the United States in a positive light. Only in Belarus and Russia are the ratings lower – 29 percent and 23 percent, respectively.

The latest Gallup survey results show that the United States’ image has remained favorable over the past years in Central Asia and has significantly improved in Ukraine in the past two years. Between 2008 and 2010, the share of Ukrainians with favorable views of the United States grew from 26 percent to 38 percent.

The biggest gains were seen in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. All three countries saw a roughly two-fold increase since 2008. Compared to three years ago, when 20 percent of Kazakhs and 22 percent of Uzbeks approved U.S. leadership, in 2010 this number increased to 42 percent and 47 percent, respectively.

According to Gallup, such a spike in U.S. ratings is the response of these Central Asian states to President Barack Obama's landmark speech in Cairo. “That may have influenced approval in the region, given that the majority of its population is Muslim,” explains Gallup.

In Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, the U.S.’s rating has been fluctuating. In 2008, only 24 percent of the Kyrgyz population viewed the United States favorably. In 2009, positive perceptions increased to 36 percent, only to decline to 30 percent in 2010.

Importantly, however, the share of Central Asians unsure about their view of the United States is high. Forty three percent of Kazakhs are not sure whether United States leadership is positive or negative. Kyrgyzstan 44 percent and 36 percent of Uzbeks refrain from identifying Washington’s global impact.

Russia is the only former Soviet state where the number of those disapproving the U.S. leadership is higher than the U.S. approval rating – 29 against 23 percent of responders.

Otunbayeva’s Courage Recognized in Washington

By Erica Marat

Kyrgyzstan President Roza Otunbayeva’s visit to Washington, DC on March 6-8 exceeded expectations. On March 7 Otunbayeva held an unplanned meeting with President Barak Obama. This marked the second meeting between the two presidents in less than six months.

Obama made an impromptu appearance during Otunbayeva’s meeting with National Security Advisor Tom Donilon. The President reiterated his support of Kyrgyzstan’s efforts to consolidate its democracy. Obama thanked Otunbayeva for hosting the US Transit Center and pledged the United States’ commitment to “maximize the benefits” from the Center for the Kyrgyz people.
Otunbayeva, in turn, was impressed by Obama’s in-depth knowledge of developments in Kyrgyzstan. During her informal speech at the Kyrgyz embassy shortly before departing Washington, DC on March 8, the President said that she is genuinely delighted by the amount of attention and interest US policy makers pay to Kyrgyzstan.

Her deputy, Shamil Atakhanov, told Jamestown, that most talks with donor organizations were about “concrete and substantive” issues.

The main goal of Otunbayeva’s visit to Washington was to accept an “International Women of Courage” award presented by First Lady Michelle Obama and State Secretary Hillary Clinton. Additionally, Otunbayeva was able to hold several important meetings with US officials, think-tanks and NGOs. She met with Senator John Kerry (D-Mass) and John McCain (R-Ariz), among others.

Upon her return to Kyrgyzstan, however, Otunbayeva will face grand challenges. The parliament’s ruling coalition might collapse at any point over disagreement about government posts. Opposition party Ata-Meken has been attacking the deputy prime minister and head of Respublika party, Omurbek Babanov, over his alleged involvement in corrupt deals.

The overall political climate in Kyrgyzstan remains unpredictable as presidential elections approach. All five political parties represented in the parliament prefer to their leaders to be the head of state. Most are ready to use dirty tricks to prevail in the competition. Otunbayeva might be Kyrgyzstan’s only president to receive such a warm welcome in Washington for a long time.

Elections Not a Smooth Ride for Nazarbayev

By Erica Marat

President Nursultan Nazarbayev might have thought out his strategy carefully before scheduling snap elections on April 3, but the leader is underestimating the role media and social networks will play during the election campaign.

Kazakhstan’s media landscape has changed since Nazarbayev last ran for president in December 2005. The country’s blogosphere has expanded along with greater penetration of Internet. Political opposition has better access to media to voice its criticism. Indeed, the opposition party OSDP “Azat” might have more supporters this time as well.

This time around, political opposition and Kazakhstan’s bloggers will be able to better record the government’s falsification of election results. The Internet has a far longer reach in Kazakhstan, while the blogger community has expanded over the past years. Although no one in Kazakhstan expects mass protests after the election, documented fraudulence during the election will contribute to public discontent over the Nazarbayev leadership.

Two major candidates – Bulat Abilov from OSDP “Azat” and Jambyl Akhmetbekov from the Communist National Party of Kazakhstan – have openly stated that they doubt the elections will be free and fair. Both argue that the two months allocated for political campaigning is unfair to opposition candidates.

Three candidates will compete with Nazarbayev: Gani Kasymov with the Party of Patriots, Communist Party leader Zhambyl Akhmetbekov and environmentalist Mels Yeleusizov. All three are known in Kazakhstan, but their bases of support are too insufficient to challenge Nazarbayev.

In February, three female candidates announced their plans to run for president, including Guldana Tokobaeva, Maya Karamayeva, and Meyramkul Kozhagulova. Karamayev and Kozhagulova tried to register as candidates in 2005 but were not able to pass the Kazakh language exam. None of the women, however, were able to gather enough support in the country to officially register as candidates.

According to most experts, Nazarbayev is a popular enough leader to win in free and fair elections by earning support from at least 60 percent of the population. However, Nazarbayev prefers to see his score reach 90 percent or higher. Given that opposition forces are more assertive this time around, the question now remains – will Nazarbayev be happy with support of 90, 80 or 70 percent of voters?

Khodorkovsky Faces Kremlin

By Erica Marat

On February 20 for roughly 30 minutes, a large banner featuring images of the imprisoned former CEO of Russian energy giant Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hung facing the Kremlin until Moscow police took it down. The interesting aspect of the banner was that Putin, not Khodorkovsky, was depicted behind bars in the images.

In the spirit of provocation, activists from the Russian youth movement “We” hung the banner, which depicted the images and the words “Time to change”, some 50 meters away from the country’s symbol of power.

According to “We” leader Roman Dobrokhotov, there were no police around to stop the hanging of the banner. Minutes later, however, police officers were on the scene and tried to prevent anyone from photographing the banner. Roughly half an hour later the banner was taken down, but Russian photographers were able to capture its image and spread it across social networking websites.

Over the years, Khodorkovsky has crafted a succinct message about his imprisonment. Through Twitter and his website, Khodorkovsky shares his thoughts with the wider public. The number of sympathizers for him in Russia and across the world dramatically increased after his second trial earlier this year when Khodorkovsky’s prison term was renewed until 2014.

New details of the second trial became available as Natalya Vasilyeva, an assistant to Judge Viktor Danilkin, who found Khodorkovsky guilty, revealed the court was under strict control of Russian authorities. She claims that the verdict Danilkin read in court was not written by the judge himself.

Although the banner has been taken down, Russian opposition movements use the example of Khodorkovsky’s imprisonment to illustrate the oppressiveness of Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev’s regime. In their latest Washington Post op-ed piece, the co-chairs of the opposition People's Freedom Party called on the United States to “discontinue their kisses-and-hugs ‘Realpolitik,’ which has failed, and to stop flirting with Russian rulers."

“It is unfair when a man who could be accused of many more criminal charges than Mikhail Khodorkovsky is ruling the country,” said Dobrokhotov.

Kyrgyzstan, Russia Move Closer to New Agreement on Fuel Supplies to Manas

By Erica Marat

On February 10, the Kyrgyz-Russian intergovernmental commission on trade-economic, scientific and humanitarian cooperation requested the Kyrgyz government to form a special joint venture between Russian energy company “Gazpromneft-Aero” and Kyrgyzstan’s “Refueling Complex Manas." The joint venture will supply Russian fuel to the U.S. Transit Center at Manas airport.

Deputy Prime Minister on economic issues Omurbek Babanov said that the joint venture will be formed by end of this month and the company should begin work on the fuel supply by March.

President Roza Otunbayeva also said that she welcomes new opportunities for bilateral cooperation with Russia. Without mentioning the new joint venture, the president expressed her hope that new bilateral initiatives will be implemented as soon as possible.

Last year, when the U.S. Department of Defense renewed its contract with Mina Corp Ltd., the Kyrgyz government expressed its disappointment with the decision. According to government officials, Mina’s work in Kyrgyzstan lacked transparency and the company was engaged in corrupt deals with former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Otunbayeva has been pushing for greater transparency in the government. However, despite the formation of a new joint stock company, questions of transparency in fuel contracts still remain. It is unclear who will be the main informal stakeholders of fuel supplies on the Kyrgyz side. Kyrgyz NGOs and journalists have been pressing for greater transparency in fuel contracts.

The Kyrgyz president has been pressing for the elimination of Mina from the equation, arguing that it would save up to $50 million per year. In an attempt to save its DoD contracts in Kyrgyzstan, Mina has launched an aggressive PR campaign to improve its image in Bishkek, Moscow and Washington. Mina representatives have been emphasizing that the Congressional subcommittee’s investigation did not find any major cases of corruption in the company’s work.

It also still remains unclear whether or not the Russian side supports Otunbayeva’s suggestion on ousting Mina from the existing contracts.