A Tragic Anniversary in Georgia

by Paul Goble

Vienna, November 6 – Tomorrow, in various ways and with various feelings in their hearts, many people across the former Soviet space will commemorate the 72nd anniversary of the Bolshevik coup d’état. But in Georgia, many will mark the 2nd anniversary of what they see as the dashing of the hopes of the Rose Revolution by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.
The full text of Paul Gobles article can be read on.

On that date, two years ago, Saakashvili first ordered his security services to use tear gas, water cannon and rubber bullets to disperse protesters who were demanding his resignation and then closed down two of the independent television networks in order to prevent the opposition from communicating with the rest of the country,

In the wake of those actions, the Georgian president called a snap election, the result of which he invoked as justification for his course of action, a course that not only has alienated many of those who first supported him in the 2002 rising which overthrew Eduard Shevardnadze but set the stage for the conflict with Moscow that led to the Russian invasion in August 2008.

Sergey Markedonov, one of Moscow’s most thoughtful commentators on the Caucasus, says that it is unlikely that the opposition will be able to mount as large a protest on this date as it has in the past, but he insists those events are nonetheless going to echo in Georgia and across the former Soviet space for a long time to come (www.politcom.ru/9069.html).

The Moscow analyst gives three reasons for thinking that the opposition is unlikely to be able to organize a serious protest on this anniversary. First, he points out, Saakashvili’s opponents remain divided, even as one or another of their leaders continues to come up with projects for new political parties and movements.
(The most recent of these – the creation of a Social Democratic Movement for the Development of Georgia – was announced only three days ago. As Markedonov notes, “from a purely theoretical point of view,” such a movement is “interesting” because it was the Social Democrats (Mensheviks) who led Georgia during the years of the Russian Civil War.)

Second, Markedonov points out, Western governments have grown tired of “illegitimate changes of power in a country pretending to the title of the ‘advance post of democracy in the Caucasus” and very much want that “the departure of the third president of Georgia be according to the constitution” rather than as a result of street protests.

And third – and this is no small thing, Markedonov suggests – the Saakashvili regime “however much people in the Kremlin talk about its unpopularity and loss of trust among the population as before retains definite resources of influence in society,” both through its control of the media and through its control of the force structures.

Flues, Plagues and Biological Weapons in Ukraine

by Tammy Lynch

Listening to Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko, we might be tempted to conclude that Ukraine is doomed. Certain to collapse under the weight of an overwhelming tripartite plague of viral pathogens.

“People are dying,” Yushchenko told television viewers. “The epidemic is killing doctors. This is absolutely unprecedented and inconceivable in the 21st century.”

Moreover, “Unlike similar epidemics in other countries, three pathogens of viral infections came to Ukraine at the same time: two of them are seasonal flu and the third is the A/H1N1. According to virologists, such a combination of infections due to mutation may produce a new, even more aggressive virus.”

The epidemic he spoke of is the H1N1 virus, which is blamed, sadly, for the deaths of approximately 90 people in Ukraine over the last several weeks. These deaths should not be minimized or dismissed. But, Yushchenko’s statement is high on panic-inducing hyperbole and low on facts.

Every year in Ukraine people die from the seasonal flu. Yesterday, the government claimed that the number of deaths from flu this year is actually 10 percent below last year. Since we don’t have access to documents, it’s impossible to know if this claim is accurate. But, it’s possible.

The World Health Organization recognizes a “big event” in Ukraine, but also suggests a “moderate impact.” According to Bloomberg, at the moment, infection rates seem to be in line with the United Kingdom, which has seen a .03 percent death rate after infection from H1N1 with 137 deaths in two months.

It is possible that infection and death rates will continue to rise exponentially, particularly given Ukraine’s horribly equipped and poorly maintained health facilities.

But statements like those from Yushchenko and other officials have not been helpful. The President seems determined to create panic. Because of these statements, many Ukrainians suggest that the country is actually facing an outbreak of a more virulent illness, such as pneumonic plague. Several bloggers even suggested that a pharmaceutical company had accidentally released a biological weapon. (See this google search link for the myriad of stories on this.)

Prime Minister Tymoshenko certainly didn’t help matters by announcing a “quarantine” of nine regions, limiting travel, banning all public gatherings and attempting to take control of pharmaceutical pricing. Such a strong reaction suggests a very strong virus. But while Yushchenko is sewing uncertainty, Tymoshenko is trying to show iron.

Unfortunately, this iron came after the illness had already hit. The government appears to have done little preparation to battle the flu.

Regardless, Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and all candidates in the election have seized on the H1N1 virus. Opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych criticized the government for its lack of preparedness, Yushchenko suggested that public officials should be held criminally responsible for not stopping the flu’s spread, and Tymoshenko has used the epidemic to cancel all election gatherings for three weeks.

All three candidates also have set the foundation for future use of the flu if necessary. Could Yushchenko hope to create enough panic to find support for a state of emergency, thus cancelling the election? Could Tymoshenko use the epidemic both to limit her opponents’ campaigning and to consolidate control over power entities? Could Yanukovych lead a revolt against both leaders?

It’s going to be a very long election season.

Eurasian Energy Briefs

by Roman Kupchinsky

The Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, which is being pressured by its European customers to change the current pricing policy for gas which is linked to oil prices, received an unexpected measure of support from the Chinese government.

The government in Beijing declared that the linkage between oil and gas prices remain in place. However, many experts believe that this is mostly a symbolic declaration because in the ongoing negotiations between China and Gazprom, the most that Gazprom can expect is a 10-15 percent price increase above the current price of gas sold to China of $269/1,000 cubic meters.

Sinopec, the Chinese oil and gas company, announced on October 31 that the price of gas should remain linked to oil and diesel prices and announced that the price of gas will rise on the Chinese domestic market.

Pressure from Gazprom’s European customers however, has forced Gazprom management to react to their demands and promise unspecified changes in the existing pricing scheme.

Some analysts believe that the Chinese side rushed into supporting the Russian pricing scheme in order to hasten deliveries of gas from the Russian West and East Siberian gas fields. However, it is unrealistic to believe that gas from both regions will be available in the near future. The West Siberian fields can come on line earlier since they already have the needed infrastructure to support deliveries of 30 billion cubic meters/year.

Russian gas and Ukrainian politics are being mixed once again in the traditional cat and mouse game between Moscow and Kyiv.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told the leadership of the United Russia party on October 30 that “It appears that we will have problems with payment for our energy once again” Putin told the party leadership. The Russian Prime Minister refered to his phone conversation with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko during which she allegedly complained that Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is blocking payments for Russian gas.

Putin added that Ukraine has the needed funds to pay and could use its gold reserves, valued at $27-28 billion. He quoted an unnamed IMF expert who stated that it was possible and correct for Ukraine to pay Russia from these gold reserves.

Russia Casts a Wary Eye on Deepening U.S.-Georgia Cooperation

Dmitri Rogozin

by Giorgi Kvelashvili
For the full text of this article see the Jamestown Eurasian Daily Monitor.

On October 30th, Russia’s Permanent Representative to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, gave an interview to Ekho Moskvy Radio, in which he severely criticized America’s Georgia policy. Quoted by most of Russia’s news agencies, Rogozin said: “No one has abandoned the idea to use Georgia as a counterbalance to Russia…[Georgia is] a toothache or a headache for us in the Caucasus; as far as we are concerned, these attempts will continue.”

When answering the question regarding the future of the relations between Moscow and Washington if the United States deploys military bases in Ukraine and Georgia, the high-profile Russian envoy, a fierce critic of the current leaderships in Kyiv and Tbilisi said, “a few days ago there was a statement by a high-rank representative of the Obama Administration that Washington has no plans whatsoever to establish military bases” in those countries.

He apparently meant U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow who recently held talks in Tbilisi and made several public announcements.

On the one hand Vershbow stated that the Obama Administration does not plan to use territories of non-NATO countries for future air defense installations, but on the other he once again reiterated America’s commitment to Georgia’s sovereignty by saying that “the protection of Georgia’s territorial integrity is a matter of principle for the United States,” and that America wants to have Georgia as “a strong, independent and sovereign partner that will be able to defend itself.”

Rogozin and in fact the entire Russian political establishment look puzzled about the United States’ future steps vis-à-vis Georgia’s security. “We do not know what to believe since we have heard so many contradictory statements over the past month and half.” Rogozin also added that “the Russian side would like to receive more clarity in this regard from the Administration of President Obama.”

Russia’s major concern seems to be the upward trajectory of U.S.-Georgian security and military cooperation, one of the pillars of the U.S.-Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership. Joint exercises of the American and Georgian military have already become a commonplace. Rapid Response 2009, the latest one, was recently held at Vaziani, one of Georgia’s best-equipped military bases near the capital Tbilisi. The United States has also committed itself to providing Georgia with military planning and training assistance.

Although the declared goal of the exercises was to train Georgians for their participation in NATO’s military operations in Afghanistan (Tbilisi intends to send troops there in December), Russia’s reaction was unusually swift and critical, making clear its deep suspicion about the role of the American military in Georgia. In Rogozin’s words, “any military activities near the Russian borders causes Moscow’s concerns, especially when they involve the American military.”

Moscow’s envoy to NATO also added that “there must be an agreement between Russia and NATO as soon as possible to create trust between us.” It seems Moscow’s worst nightmare would be America’s permanent military presence in Georgia that would entirely thwart the current Russian leadership’s geo-strategic aspirations regarding “a zone of privileged interests.”

In regard to Georgia’s NATO membership which Moscow apparently wanted to undercut by invading Georgia, Russia also failed to achieve a desired outcome. Although the prospect of Georgia’s membership might seem more distant now than would have been in the absence of the Russian military aggression, it is not at all taken by NATO’s enlargement agenda. In Vershbow’s words, as reported by Russian media, “it is extremely difficult to say” when Georgia will join NATO and in Washington’s view the process “could take years”.

Meanwhile, Washington’s and its allies’ support for Georgia’s NATO choice remains unchanged. On October 30th the Georgian media reported NATO’s Spokesperson James Appathurai as saying that “the improvement of relations between the Alliance and the Russian Federation will not hinder the process of Georgia’s and Ukraine’s integration into NATO”.

Russia’s anxiety about Washington’s deepening cooperation with Tbilisi is perfectly understandable. Despite Moscow’s incessant attempts to bring Tbilisi back to its geopolitical orbit, Georgia, is now further from Russia than ever before. Even the war that Russia waged against Georgia in August 2008 failed to produce the outcome Moscow very much hoped for, namely, a regime change that would bring to power a pro-Russian leadership in Tbilisi or create anarchy and instability throughout Georgia.

Quite the contrary happened during the course of the war. Georgia abruptly withdrew from the Moscow-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States, to which Russia purportedly extends its “zone of privileged interests,” severed diplomatic relations with Moscow and in an even more surprising development signed the Charter on Strategic Partnership with the United States a few months later, in January 2009. Economically - while trade with Russia is steadily declining as a result of Moscow-imposed economic embargo on Georgian products- trade relations with Turkey, the United States and other NATO and European countries are on the rise, further distancing Tbilisi from Moscow’s political and economic orbit.

Islamic Militants and Ukraine

Explosives manual found in Crimea, courtesy of Ukrainian SBU


by Roman Kupchinsky

On October 3, units of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Internal Ministry troops apprehended 3 men suspected of membership in an unnamed Islamic militant group in a mountainous region in the Crimea. The security forces discovered two caches of weapons, explosives and literature. A gunfight broke out and one of the militants was wounded.

Then, on October 26, Ukrainian Special Forces units detained 5 more Ukrainian citizens suspected of belonging to an international Islamic militant group operating in the Crimea. The arrests came after the authorities uncovered another cache of explosive materials, detonators, a Kalashnikov rifle, firearms manuals and propaganda materials.

According to Ukrainian authorities the men were linked to two Islamic extremist groups –al-Takfir wal-Hijra, which originated in Egypt and is active in North Africa and Hizb-ut-Tahrir which operates in Central Asia.

Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko stated:
"A network of the extreme Islamic movement al-Takfir wal-Hijra, which is banned by many countries in the world, is spreading in the Crimean territory of Ukraine."

Lutsenko also pointed out that supporters of these organizations are seeking refuge in other countries, including Ukraine and have begun publishing a newsletter linked to Hizb-ut-Tahrir, “Revival”, in the Crimea.

Lutsenko also said that searches had been conducted in seven residences of the extremists. TNT blocks with detonators, daggers and a large amount of extremist literature were seized at one address in Simferopol.

The militant groups appear to be targeting the Crimean Tartars, a large Muslim Turkic ethnic minority in the strategically important Crimean peninsula which is largely populated by Russians and where the headquarters of the Russian Black Fleet is located.

Over the past few years a movement to unite the Crimea with Russia has been fostered by Russian nationalists with the support of Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and some members of the Russian state Duma.

Relations between the Crimean Tartars and the Russian population have been tense with the leadership of the Tartar community firmly advocating that the Crimea remain part of Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian media reports, “the extremists planned to pass death sentences on the leader of the Mejlis (assembly) of the Crimean Tatar People, MP Mustafa Dzemilev, and his supporters, and plotted a number of terrorist attacks in Ukraine.”

Prison Universities in Belarus

by Yuri Zarakhovich

On October 29, a group of young people filed a formal protest with a Minsk district prosecutor against the brutal breaking up by the riot police of a peaceful protest in the Belarus capital a week earlier.

Opposition activists are well aware of the fact that their protests against police violence will be turned down, but such formal protests also require the police to send a formal reply. On previous occasions the prosecutors’ responses were similar. Still, the opposition reasonably seeks to keep all these illegalities on the record.

Brutal police beatings and arrests of any protesters have long become a fixture of political life in Belarus. Only within the last five weeks, the riot police violently broke up three peaceful opposition rallies.

Powerful, well-trained policemen knock down protesters, shove their faces into the tarmac, beat them with clubs and heavy boots—and then throw them into huge armored trucks - the highest technological achievement of Alexander Lukashenko’s 15 year-old dictatorial rule.

I saw those trucks while covering Belarus’ “presidential election”---they are specious enough for the cops to push several dozen people in, and wield clubs to keep beating them on the way to jail. By the time they arrive, the blooded prisoners usually cannot stand on their feet.

This is followed by detentions—and more beatings.

Young protesters whom I met in Belarus in recent years, account for more days spent in jail between them, than for the number of years they have lived. Each has a broken head, or a damaged kidney, or broken ribs as mementos of senseless and vicious police brutality, as seeking democracy is a criminal offense in Lukashenko’s Belarus.

Once a Belarusian student acquires a police record, he or she is expelled from school. As protests against the dictatorship attract the best and the brightest, the most promising generations in Belarus now risk losing their education, while the state risks finding itself out on the limb. What future does any country have, if it denies education to its young?

However, the kids don’t feel they miss much. “They mostly teach Lukashenko’s state ideology at official schools these days,” they laughed in response to my questions. “In jails, we are getting the best of the real thing.” Indeed, they share jail cells with Belarus’ top intellectuals, professors, scholars and artists, who read them lectures they never had at school. “I lectured them on Freud and the arts,” the prominent Belarus documentary cinema director Yuri Khashchevatsky once explained to me, after he had served his ten days in jail with young people for taking part in a street protest action.

This is reminiscent of what we all read during our childhoods about 19th century oppression in East European monarchies where the best and the brightest obtained an education in jail rather than at school. Reproducing this pattern in the 21st century doesn’t bode well for Belarus.

Ukraine: The election gets organized and the IMF gets gone

by Tammy Lynch

The IMF ended its fact-finding mission to Ukraine on 26 October. The organization’s representatives left Ukraine without disclosing whether they would recommend the approval or delay of the next tranche of Ukraine’s stabilization loan. Shortly after, Tim Ash, an emerging market analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland, suggested that the IMF cools on Ukraine as politics heats up and that the dispersal of the $3.4 billion loan in the near future seems unlikely. "Even with the IMF in very generous mode at present, it is difficult to see the Fund lending into an election campaign," he said. "The most likely outcome would be for the Fund to delay disbursement, perhaps even awaiting the outcome of the elections."

This is particularly true since certain suggested IMF policies and reforms have become hostage to Ukraine’s newly opened election campaign. The government has not raised household gas rates as agreed, in order to help balance state gas company Naftohaz’s books, and the parliament recently voted a state pension and wage increase that is unfundable in current circumstances.

While suggesting that the economic situation in Ukraine “is stabilizing,” IMF representatives in Ukraine specifically mentioned the wage increase as a potential deal-breaker. They urged President Viktor Yushchenko to veto the legislation.

As noted in a previous blog here, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko – trying desperately to save the IMF funding – called the wage increase “an atom bomb under the finances of the country” shortly after it was passed. She asked the President to veto it. He has not done so – at least not yet.

Given Ukraine’s deep economic crisis and almost catastrophic decrease in budget revenues this year, allowing the increases to remain could be one of the most irresponsible actions of Yushchenko’s presidency. Moreover, since he did not propose the wage increase, and since his poll ratings sit under 5 percent, it seems unlikely this increase will boost his support ahead of the 17 January election.

On the other hand, it just may decrease support for his bitter rival, Prime Minister Tymoshenko, which is perhaps the point.

Election Fast Facts

- The Central Election Commission registered a slew of presidential candidates this week. These candidates include Party of Regions/opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych, Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, former Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko, former Central Bank Chair and 2004 Yanukovych campaign manager (through the first round) Serhiy Tyhypko, former parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, former deputy head of the Party of Regions Iryna Bohoslovska, and President Viktor Yushchenko. The CEC is examining the papers of dozens of other potential candidates, including Prime Minister Tymoshenko. Only Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and Yatsenyuk are expected to have any major effect on the race.

- Two new conflicting polls were released this week. The first by TNS Ukraine showed Yulia Tymoshenko making up almost eight points on the lead held by opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych. The former Prime Minister is said to lead the current Prime Minister by 21.17% to 17.92%. Yatsenyuk is third with 6.5%.

The second poll by the Research and Branding group found Yanukovych maintaining his significant lead over Tymoshenko (31%-18.4%). Yatsenyuk is listed at 9.6%.

Because of the historical problems with methodology and loyalties within Ukrainian polling firms, it is difficult to know which poll is closer to reality. The almost sure bet, though, is that Yanukovych and Tymoshenko will square off against each other in the second round of the election.